Re-engraving the god operation of Twitter "trader", Musk is like a model?

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Musk once again reproduced the magical operation of Twitter "trading".

On November 9th, Tesla's stock price fell 11.99%, and the previous trading day, Tesla's stock price fell 4.8%, and the market value of 198 billion U.S. dollars (about 1.3 trillion yuan) was evaporated in two days. This figure bought the entire BYD. All are surplus.

Everyone knows the reason. Musk launched a poll on Twitter last weekend, asking netizens whether he should sell 10% of his Tesla shares, and said that he would do the same regardless of the result. The final voting results showed that 3.519 million netizens participated in the vote, and 57.9% of them voted for it.

Musk's shareholding in Tesla is about 17%, and the 10% he plans to sell account for about 1.7% of Tesla's overall market value. The sale of this proportion of shares is enough to shake market sentiment. Because of the foreseeable sell-off of major shareholders in the future, Tesla shareholders have begun to prepare for the upcoming decline in the market in the near future. This directly caused Tesla's stock price to plummet in the past two days.

The whole thing looks absurd. Musk handed over the control of some of his own wealth to netizens who had nothing to do with him. This operation literally led to the loss of Tesla shareholders and the shrinking of Musk's own wealth.

Spectators believe that this is Musk's "usual" operation. Usually, the Twitter governance department can attract more enthusiasm to the company, but when the actual interests of shareholders are involved, insufficiently rigorous speech and operation will attract criticism.

But the most important thing behind this is that investors need a CEO with predictable behavior.

Musk found a good reason to cash out at a high position?

After tweeting whether to sell the stock, Musk immediately explained that the cash from the sale of the stock will be used to pay the wealthy tax he may face in the future.

In 2020, Musk almost emptied the physical assets he held. He claimed that his current assets were mainly company shares. In order to pay the rich tax, he had to cash out from the stock market. This statement of Musk formed a tightly closed logical loop, explaining why he wanted to sell the stock, and also directed the ultimate responsibility for Tesla's possible share price decline to the US government.

But this logic cannot convince everyone. "Musk used the current inconclusive political issue about billionaire taxation as an opportunity to monetize billions of dollars in wealth and reduce the negative sentiment in the market for himself and the company's stock price", American analyst Michael O'Rourke wrote.

Some Twitter netizens also condemned Musk's move. "It was a cowardly behavior for Musk to give this decision to his Twitter fans, and it did not fulfill his responsibilities and obligations to investors," said a netizen.

There are currently many speculations in the market regarding the flow of funds from Musk's cash out. The huge capital gains tax that Musk is about to pay may be the main reason for his stock selling. "Musk still has options to buy Tesla stock at a low price, and this requires Musk to pay a huge capital gains tax. This figure is higher than the dividends that Musk will receive from continuing to hold the stock," an analyst said. Tiger sniff said.

According to CNBC reports, Musk pledged at least 92 million Tesla shares to lenders for cash borrowing. So Musk may want to sell some stocks to pay off debts.

But no matter how Musk rationalizes his planned high-level cash-out behavior, it will not change his planned high-level cash-out intentions.

Information from the market shows that Musk’s relatives and some Tesla executives have begun to sell stocks. According to a regulatory document, Musk’s younger brother Kimbal Musk sold about US$109 million worth of Tess on Friday, November 5, the day before Musk asked fans on social media whether to sell 10% of the shares. Pull stocks.

After Tesla's market value exceeded $1 trillion last month, current and former board members, including Tesla Chairman Robyn Denholm, Ira Ehrenpreis, and Antonio Gracias, also sold hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Tesla stock.

Musk himself explained his reasons for hoping to cash out the stock, but Musk's younger brother and other Tesla executives did not give an explanation.

"Tesla himself feels that the current stock price is too high, so it is ready to cash out part of it," the aforementioned person said to Tiger Sniff.

Although Musk has not yet begun to sell shares, this Twitter vote has caused shocks in the secondary market. In this incident, Tesla's shorts were able to breathe, the bulls began to mourn, and the holders of good cryptocurrency began to revel, and persuaded Musk to put the cashed cash into Bitcoin and Dogecoin.

Dogecoin bulls Matt Wallace suggested that Musk should buy Dogecoin in large quantities. He said: "Spending so much money on Dogecoin will make it a very popular decision."

Another part of the view believes that Musk will inevitably face the dilemma of "regular tax" in the future. Therefore, Musk launched a vote on Twitter to protect the interests of shareholders. His stock sold was not because he was not optimistic about Tesla, but a last resort. Such a move would minimize Musk’s sell-off on the fundamentals of Tesla’s stock price. Impact.

People who believe in this theory have overlooked a basic fact, Musk may go back, and in this incident, Tesla's stock price has really fallen. Musk seems to give the decision to sell the stock to Twitter fans, but in fact the final disposal right of the stock is still in Musk's hands.

We should focus on the actual impact of this tweet on the capital market, not on Musk's motives and the whereabouts of funds.

This also gives rise to a new problem. Musk, as a major shareholder of Tesla, used Twitter to announce and determine whether this behavior of Tesla's equity is in line with SEC regulations. According to Musk's previous settlement agreement with the SEC, Musk needs to be reviewed by a lawyer when releasing information that may affect Tesla's stock price. In addition, the SEC requires listed companies to report major events that may occur to the company within 4 working days.

The information disclosure of listed companies has a rigorous process, which is not as simple as editing a tweet.

This is not the first time Musk tweeted to "rule stocks"

Even if Tesla is fulfilling its high growth potential to the capital market, but limited by Musk's elusive character, investing in Tesla shares also has this special risk. No one knows where Musk’s next tweet will take Tesla’s stock price.

Although in this incident, Musk tried his best to give a more reasonable cash out reason. However, his past performance in the capital market and the cryptocurrency market makes it difficult for investors to believe that he is a CEO who is responsible for the capital market.

Just last week, Musk also expressed skepticism on Twitter about the purchase of 100,000 Tesla cars by the car rental company Hertz (OTC: HTZZ) for the lease of its fleet, and downplayed the $4.2 billion agreement. Tesla's stock price fell 3% the next day.

In 2018, Musk said on Twitter that he was considering privatizing Tesla at a price of US$420, and funds were already in place. This tweet allowed Tesla's stock price to rise all the way, but in the end this privatization incident was not resolved.

Musk was punished by the SEC for this behavior. In the end, Musk paid a fine of $20 million to settle the SEC's fraud allegations and was not allowed to serve as Tesla's chairman for three years.

Musk's many crazy followers give him considerable power to influence the market through social media, and vague regulatory policies make it difficult for regulators to make Musk pay for his words and deeds.

For example, in the cryptocurrency market, Musk once stated that Tesla will accept Bitcoin as a payment. This remark once raised the price of Bitcoin. But later, he said that Bitcoin mining caused a lot of energy waste "not green enough", and announced the suspension of accepting Bitcoin payments. Subsequently, Bitcoin fell sharply.

Turning hands is a cloud, covering hands is rain. The big guys in the currency circle need to mobilize a huge amount of market capital or computing power to achieve the goal, Musk only needs to move his fingers.

In a market where regulation is absent, such a role increases the risk of all assets and transactions.