ADP is upset, non-manufacturing PMI is strong, what signal is it sending?
Looking back at yesterday’s U.S. dollar index, the overall trend of the U.S. dollar index was first down and then up. The price volatility was fair, reaching nearly 50 points, which was far more active than the previous two trading days. It will definitely help; from the hourly chart, we can see that the trend of the dollar index's first decline is actually relatively stable, but in the end it did not block the sudden rise. The price closed at a high level, and the daily K line closed in a downward shadow. , To convey a bullish mood.
To be honest, the U.S. dollar index suddenly broke out of such a wave of market yesterday, which is both unexpected and natural; the reason for the surprise is mainly because the timing of the launch of the U.S. dollar index is very strange. The U.S. dollar index has been in a stalemate for two consecutive trading days. If the market continues to fluctuate, it is likely to be really stagnant, completely devoid of vitality. Therefore, from the perspective of time, the U.S. dollar index broke out yesterday. In the past, after all, the market still needs vitality, and it is impossible to stand still forever.
Yesterday the United States announced two important data, namely ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing PMI index. These two data are actually more important, because one reflects the domestic employment situation in the United States, and the other reflects the domestic non-manufacturing in the United States. The development status of the industry; whether it is employment or domestic economic development, it is currently the top priority for the United States. However, these two data have been treated completely differently-the ADP data is directly upset, and the numerical ratio is announced. The previous value is still low, which obviously conveys a kind of bearish sentiment. However, the market did not buy it, and just ignored it like the air. There was almost no major fluctuation in the market. However, after the announcement of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI index, the U.S. dollar index changed its predecessor and directly catered to the guidance conveyed by the data. The price rose sharply, and the short-term momentum was changed from falling to rising, and then the advantage was maintained until the close. , And finally the K-line on the day was closed in the form of the shadow and Yang line, conveying a kind of over-excessive sentiment.
Two data with almost the same importance are treated completely differently by the market. It has to be said that the recent market trend is really strange. But it also illustrates a problem. It seems that the market is more responsive to bullish sentiments. Therefore, the US dollar index, stimulated by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI index, directly went out of a wave of rapid rise in the market, but turned a blind eye to the ADP data.
Of course, it is not impossible to use this logic as a judgment, but we still need to be cautious in dealing with the current situation, especially today's trend. Therefore, how to deal with tomorrow's market that non-agricultural data is about to come depends more on how today's market will eventually go and what information can be conveyed. These are the most critical.
Today’s operation, although it seems that the US dollar index should rise, it is still in a shock pattern, so we must be prepared to continue to shock, and then find a reasonable point for layout. The short-term level is temporarily bullish, but the larger cycle can only wait and see. Unless the market gives clear guidance, you can only wait patiently and wait for the market to get out of the trend before you can take advantage of the trend. for reference!
【Trading straregy】:
EUR/USD:
Although the current short-term trend in Europe and the United States tends to be bullish, this does not change the situation at a larger level, nor can it be used as a trading reference. Therefore, we still use the plan to make the layout. Today, we are short on the US dollar and Europe and the United States. We will give advice on short selling on rallies in combination with the market. Refer to the operation as appropriate. Weak position:
Short selling in the 1.1860-1.1870 range, stop loss 20 points, target 1.1840, 1.1820, 1.1800.
AUD/USD:
After careful consideration, today's second currency pair operation is still to choose Australia and the United States. Be slightly cautious in the short-selling layout on rallies, and the market will do it when the opportunity is given.
Short-selling in the 0.7415-0.7425 range, stop loss 20 points, target 0.7395, 0.7375, 0.7355.
gold:
The trend of gold yesterday was actually very devilish, because this operation will completely disrupt the current pattern, so that it is impossible to judge the future trend. This will help the transaction because the situation is already chaotic, and there is no way to start.
Therefore, today we can only give wait-and-see advice for the time being and observe patiently. When the situation becomes clear, we will not be too late to trade!
