The Fed stands still, but the market does not buy it

First review the trend of the US dollar index yesterday (strictly speaking, it should be the trend of the early morning of yesterday to the early morning of today), the price showed a first rise and then a decline in the market; during the European market, the US dollar price first showed a strong rise, giving people an illusion that it is the US dollar. The index will remain volatile, and nothing new will happen; however, as time goes by, the price of the US dollar index fell for a while, completely offsetting the advantage of the previous rise, and with the announcement of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision in the early morning hours and Powell’s press conference The U.S. dollar index suddenly went out of the fancy strangulation market. The price suddenly pulled up and then plummeted. After a wave of typical retail and institutional market conditions, the U.S. dollar index went down all the way, without looking back, and finally closed. At the low position, the daily chart closed as a yin line with a shadow. So far, the strong bear sentiment is undoubtedly revealed.

For the US dollar index this wave of strangulation, in fact, yesterday’s analysis of the currency review gave a clear reminder. After careful consideration, it is considered that the demand for the US dollar index to rise further is not enough. On the contrary, the downward ideology continues to deepen. Therefore, once it is sufficiently stimulated, the US dollar The possibility of a decline in the index is very high, so it is judged to be bearish on the U.S. dollar index. After the announcement of the Fed's interest rate, coupled with Powell's press conference, it has formed an effective stimulus for the US dollar index, thus out of a wave of strangulation, which is equivalent to an official announcement that the decline of the market will begin.

However, will the dollar index fall smoothly in the future? uncertain. First of all, the fall of the U.S. dollar index will bring considerable pressure to the U.S. economy. In particular, the leakage of U.S. dollar liquidity caused by the decline of the U.S. dollar index will definitely hinder the development of the U.S. economy. At the same time, the decline of the U.S. dollar index will also cause commodity prices to rise. This in turn will cause high domestic inflation in the United States... Obviously, these are factors that are not conducive to the development of the United States economy, so they will definitely put tremendous pressure on the Fed; in addition, if the US dollar index falls too sharply, it will inevitably cause other unimaginable damage. The point is also the last thing the Fed wants to see; therefore, it is believed that the US dollar index will go lower in the future, but the process will not be coherent and smooth. On the contrary, there will be many twists and turns, and there will be volatility in the market. So, even if The current bearish sentiment is strong, but it cannot be simply assumed that the US dollar index will decline quickly without the occurrence of shocks.

So, how do you deal with the upcoming market? It is more appropriate to deal with it in a cautious manner as much as possible. Maintain a bearish mentality as a whole, but the entry point needs more thinking, especially the layout point. It must be considered in place and inclusive enough to make it possible to earn that in the future when there are various risk factors. A suitable profit. In this regard, please bear in mind, do not be arrogant, and respond calmly!

【Trading straregy】:

EUR/USD:

Although the current gains in Europe and the United States are gratifying, it is actually not suitable for catching up with the trend. After all, the potential market risk is not small. It is still necessary to be cautious and cautious. Try to give a cautious low-poly layout. Wet warehouse:

Buy in the 1.1830-1.1840 range, stop loss 20 points, and target 1.1860, 1.1880, and 1.1900.

AUD/USD:

Today's second operation currency pair, continue to choose Australia and the United States to trade. Although logically, Australia and the United States should look for opportunities that are much lower, but considering some other factors in the market, today Australia and the United States can actually overestimate the low scum; combined with the current trend, the opportunity to short rallies is more appropriate, so the following suggestions are given , Refer to the operation as appropriate, Wessang:

Short selling in the 0.7400-0.7410 range, stop loss 20 points, target 0.7380, 0.7360, 0.7340.

gold:

From the perspective of gold trend, there are already some signs of upward start, so we should look for opportunities to lower the price. However, the current unstable sentiment in the gold market is still great. You cannot simply assume that gold must rise. Instead, you must be careful to guard against sudden counter-kills in the market.